Performance Results

This report assesses state performance based on state reported performance indicator results for PY 2020 compared to the adjusted negotiated levels of performance. The negotiated levels are adjusted based on the estimates from the statistical adjustment models and the actual characteristics of the participants served and economic conditions within the state in PY 2020. This assessment focuses specifically on those indicators and scores that are being formally assessed in 2020.

Some things to note about the PY 2020 Assessments

  • The Department of Labor evaluated the statistical adjustment model’s effectiveness in accounting for the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and found that the model sufficiently adjusted for these impacts with respect to the measures being assessed here. The model did however consistently overestimate Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit results, indicating there was variation in the state results that was not represented in the model. The Department of Labor will continue to refine the model with additional data and improved methodologies and work with the Department of Education to ensure fair and objective performance assessments.
  • The Departments of Labor and Education issued a notice indicating which primary indicators of performance will be assessed for PY 2020 and PY 2021. The Department of Labor published this as Training and Employment Notice (TEN) 14-21.
  • For PY 2020, the only performance indicators being formally assessed are Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit and Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit and the only programs being formally assessed are the WIOA title I (WIOA Adult, WIOA Dislocated Worker, and WIOA Youth) and title III (Wagner-Peyser Act Employment Service) programs.

Performance failure

For PY 2020, there is one way a state can have a performance failure:

  1. Less than 50% for an individual indicator score (i.e., the score of a specific indicator within a specific program).

The figures below provide an overview of the performance results for states in PY 2020. Any state with at least one individual indicator score failure is shown in purple. States that have a failure on any individual indicator will receive technical assistance from the Department of Labor.

Result Type: Individual Indicator Scores

The figures below have the individual indicator scores. Each tab has all the individual indicators within that program. States have a performance failure if an individual indicator score is below 50%.

These data tables list the values for each of the following data points, which are used to derive the performance scores. For PY 2020 and PY 2021 only individual indicator scores are assessed. The definitions are as follows:

  • Estimate0 - the pre-PY prediction for PY 2020. It is calculated using the model estimates and pre-PY values for the model variables.
  • Estimate1 - the post-PY prediction for PY 2020. It is calculated using the model estimates and actual-PY values for the model variables.
  • Negotiated Level - the agreed upon target level of performance for PY 2020 prior to the start of PY 2020.
  • Adjustment Factor the total amount that the original negotiated level was adjusted. It is calculated by taking the difference of Estimate0 and Estimate1.
  • Adjusted Level - the final target that actual PY 2020 performance is measured against. It is calculated by applying the Adjustment Factor to the Negotiated Level.
  • Actual Level - the actual reported performance result for the performance indicator in PY 2020.
  • Score - the final performance score. It is a percent calculated by dividing the Actual Level by the Adjusted Level. Scores over 100 indicate that the state exceeded their adjusted level, while scores less than 100 indicate the state’s outcome was below their adjusted level.

Click the button to download the full target level data shown in the tables below for all states, programs, and indicators.

This table shows the individual indicator performance data for the Adult program indicators.

Model Predictions
Peformance Levels
Performance Results
Indicator
State
Estimate0
Estimate1
Adjustment Factor
Negotiated Level
Adjusted Level
Actual Level
Score
Result
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AK
0.8165
0.9695
0.153
0.775
0.928
0.7404
79.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AL
0.8047
0.7946
-0.0101
0.77
0.7599
0.7894
103.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AR
0.8404
0.8444
0.0039
0.87
0.8739
0.7918
90.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AZ
0.7128
0.7595
0.0467
0.714
0.7607
0.6716
88.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CA
0.6884
0.7338
0.0455
0.67
0.7155
0.6089
85.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CO
0.8072
0.8227
0.0155
0.76
0.7755
0.7448
96
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CT
0.7608
0.7594
-0.0014
0.715
0.7136
0.6857
96
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DC
0.7005
0.7495
0.049
0.67
0.719
0.7027
97.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DE
0.8446
0.895
0.0505
0.745
0.7955
0.7952
99.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
FL
0.8618
0.8734
0.0116
0.855
0.8666
0.8452
97.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
GA
0.8303
0.8734
0.0431
0.775
0.8181
0.8253
100.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
HI
0.6394
0.6827
0.0432
0.55
0.5932
0.576
97
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IA
0.7067
0.7227
0.016
0.72
0.736
0.7217
98
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ID
0.8347
0.8843
0.0496
0.815
0.8646
0.736
85.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IL
0.7823
0.8098
0.0274
0.77
0.7974
0.7536
94.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IN
0.8267
0.8379
0.0111
0.827
0.8381
0.7744
92.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KS
0.762
0.7894
0.0275
0.76
0.7875
0.7246
92
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KY
0.7235
0.6956
-0.0279
0.68
0.6521
0.7681
117.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
LA
0.6793
0.7745
0.0952
0.67
0.7652
0.6025
78.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MA
0.7819
0.8511
0.0692
0.865
0.9342
0.6867
73.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MD
0.7964
0.8047
0.0082
0.76
0.7682
0.7731
100.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ME
0.73
0.8357
0.1058
0.72
0.8258
0.6741
81.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MI
0.8771
0.891
0.0139
0.865
0.8789
0.7995
90.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MN
0.7986
0.8275
0.0289
0.794
0.8229
0.7399
89.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MO
0.7431
0.8084
0.0653
0.725
0.7903
0.7388
93.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MS
0.8513
0.8843
0.033
0.81
0.843
0.8472
100.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MT
0.7339
0.7881
0.0542
0.71
0.7642
0.748
97.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NC
0.7925
0.8901
0.0976
0.77
0.8676
0.7432
85.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ND
0.7496
0.8197
0.0701
0.77
0.8401
0.792
94.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NE
0.8002
0.8413
0.0411
0.78
0.8211
0.7808
95
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NH
0.8574
0.8496
-0.0078
0.79
0.7822
0.7739
98.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NJ
0.643
0.6952
0.0523
0.655
0.7073
0.6156
87
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NM
0.7589
0.8164
0.0574
0.76
0.8174
0.7668
93.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NV
0.7766
0.8364
0.0598
0.76
0.8198
0.6937
84.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NY
0.7124
0.703
-0.0093
0.69
0.6807
0.5885
86.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OH
0.8501
0.8861
0.036
0.815
0.851
0.7578
89
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OK
0.6738
0.7442
0.0704
0.667
0.7374
0.7144
96.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OR
0.6987
0.676
-0.0228
0.714
0.6912
0.6321
91.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PA
0.7753
0.8231
0.0479
0.73
0.7779
0.6902
88.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PR
0.8546
0.8476
-0.007
0.6
0.593
0.4955
83.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
RI
0.8468
0.8732
0.0264
0.81
0.8364
0.7403
88.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SC
0.8003
0.8149
0.0146
0.773
0.7876
0.7268
92.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SD
0.7771
0.7857
0.0086
0.75
0.7586
0.6646
87.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TN
0.8617
0.8604
-0.0014
0.82
0.8186
0.8331
101.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TX
0.7749
0.8534
0.0784
0.76
0.8384
0.6766
80.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
UT
0.792
0.7898
-0.0022
0.792
0.7898
0.7432
94
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VA
0.8107
0.8348
0.0242
0.79
0.8142
0.7645
93.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VT
0.7395
0.7771
0.0376
0.725
0.7626
0.6548
85.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WA
0.6899
0.7189
0.029
0.666
0.695
0.5917
85.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WI
0.7907
0.8542
0.0635
0.76
0.8235
0.7218
87.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WV
0.6726
0.7556
0.083
0.693
0.776
0.7286
93.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WY
0.8506
0.8667
0.0161
0.8
0.8161
0.7763
95.1
Performance Success
1–52 of 104 rows
Note: PY2018 Annual data were used to populate the pre-PY values for the model variables that generated the estimate0 for all states except for Puerto Rico, for which PY2019 Annual data were used.

This table shows the individual indicator performance data for the Dislocated Worker program indicators.

Model Predictions
Peformance Levels
Performance Results
Indicator
State
Estimate0
Estimate1
Adjustment Factor
Negotiated Level
Adjusted Level
Actual Level
Score
Result
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AK
0.8186
0.8735
0.0549
0.819
0.8739
0.8538
97.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AL
0.7877
0.8256
0.0379
0.788
0.8259
0.7738
93.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AR
0.8805
0.854
-0.0265
0.91
0.8835
0.8307
94
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AZ
0.7623
0.8013
0.039
0.78
0.819
0.7434
90.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CA
0.7187
0.7055
-0.0131
0.719
0.7059
0.6298
89.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CO
0.7794
0.7545
-0.0249
0.764
0.7391
0.7308
98.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CT
0.832
0.8266
-0.0055
0.765
0.7595
0.785
103.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DC
0.7641
0.7822
0.018
0.71
0.728
0.6972
95.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DE
0.8134
0.8157
0.0023
0.774
0.7763
0.7206
92.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
FL
0.8721
0.8762
0.0042
0.85
0.8542
0.839
98.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
GA
0.8357
0.8525
0.0168
0.78
0.7968
0.8471
106.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
HI
0.909
0.7943
-0.1148
0.58
0.4652
0.7105
152.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IA
0.8843
0.9131
0.0288
0.85
0.8788
0.8127
92.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ID
0.7977
0.7956
-0.0021
0.803
0.8009
0.8122
101.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IL
0.8359
0.82
-0.016
0.81
0.794
0.8051
101.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IN
0.8051
0.8283
0.0233
0.805
0.8283
0.7471
90.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KS
0.8228
0.8397
0.0169
0.825
0.8419
0.7546
89.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KY
0.7479
0.7749
0.027
0.72
0.747
0.7655
102.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
LA
0.6463
0.6487
0.0024
0.67
0.6724
0.5488
81.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MA
0.778
0.7897
0.0117
0.86
0.8717
0.7593
87.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MD
0.8401
0.8923
0.0522
0.8
0.8522
0.8302
97.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ME
0.7485
0.8174
0.0689
0.79
0.8589
0.7436
86.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MI
0.9236
0.94
0.0164
0.89
0.9064
0.8783
96.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MN
0.869
0.8278
-0.0412
0.837
0.7958
0.8312
104.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MO
0.7818
0.769
-0.0128
0.77
0.7572
0.7456
98.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MS
0.7473
0.7759
0.0286
0.74
0.7686
0.7133
92.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MT
0.7345
0.7804
0.0459
0.71
0.7559
0.8431
111.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NC
0.7499
0.7882
0.0382
0.74
0.7782
0.6757
86.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ND
0.7879
0.8618
0.0739
0.841
0.9149
0.8065
88.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NE
0.8522
0.8799
0.0277
0.864
0.8917
0.9225
103.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NH
0.8493
0.8257
-0.0237
0.87
0.8463
0.8134
96.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NJ
0.6693
0.6923
0.023
0.672
0.695
0.5676
81.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NM
0.7228
0.7066
-0.0162
0.757
0.7408
0.6625
89.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NV
0.8333
0.8362
0.0029
0.83
0.8329
0.7649
91.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NY
0.6671
0.6546
-0.0126
0.67
0.6574
0.5157
78.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OH
0.8793
0.8829
0.0036
0.86
0.8636
0.7512
86.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OK
0.7646
0.8375
0.0729
0.75
0.8229
0.7077
86
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OR
0.7315
0.7211
-0.0103
0.714
0.7037
0.6405
91
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PA
0.8385
0.8404
0.0019
0.75
0.7519
0.7664
101.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PR
0.7465
0.7851
0.0386
0.62
0.6586
0.5119
77.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
RI
0.8729
0.9103
0.0374
0.81
0.8474
0.8309
98
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SC
0.805
0.8438
0.0388
0.806
0.8448
0.7793
92.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SD
0.7653
0.7485
-0.0168
0.784
0.7672
0.6941
90.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TN
0.8548
0.8954
0.0406
0.82
0.8606
0.8192
95.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TX
0.7447
0.7672
0.0226
0.74
0.7626
0.7061
92.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
UT
0.8714
0.897
0.0256
0.84
0.8656
0.8188
94.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VA
0.8593
0.8281
-0.0311
0.85
0.8189
0.8382
102.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VT
0.8305
0.8849
0.0545
0.82
0.8745
0.7297
83.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WA
0.752
0.7323
-0.0197
0.722
0.7023
0.628
89.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WI
0.8484
0.8492
0.0008
0.81
0.8108
0.7964
98.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WV
0.7881
0.8004
0.0123
0.812
0.8243
0.751
91.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WY
0.762
0.8817
0.1197
0.841
0.9607
0.747
77.7
Performance Success
1–52 of 104 rows
Note: PY2018 Annual data were used to populate the pre-PY values for the model variables that generated the estimate0 for all states except for Puerto Rico, for which PY2019 Annual data were used.

This table shows the individual indicator performance data for the Youth program indicators.

Model Predictions
Peformance Levels
Performance Results
Indicator
State
Estimate0
Estimate1
Adjustment Factor
Negotiated Level
Adjusted Level
Actual Level
Score
Result
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AK
0.5649
0.6852
0.1204
0.54
0.6604
0.5579
84.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AL
0.6728
0.6496
-0.0232
0.673
0.6498
0.6961
107.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AR
0.8011
0.7699
-0.0312
0.8
0.7688
0.7157
93
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AZ
0.7546
0.747
-0.0076
0.75
0.7424
0.7001
94.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CA
0.6798
0.6253
-0.0545
0.71
0.6555
0.6602
100.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CO
0.6768
0.6763
-0.0006
0.67
0.6694
0.6727
100.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CT
0.7467
0.7752
0.0285
0.765
0.7935
0.7211
90.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DC
0.5716
0.5928
0.0213
0.58
0.6013
0.6525
108.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DE
0.6778
0.6113
-0.0665
0.675
0.6085
0.6081
99.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
FL
0.8179
0.797
-0.0209
0.79
0.7691
0.7952
103.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
GA
0.7301
0.7094
-0.0206
0.68
0.6594
0.7457
113
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
HI
0.7498
0.8804
0.1307
0.555
0.6857
0.61
88.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IA
0.7235
0.7186
-0.0048
0.73
0.7252
0.7675
105.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ID
0.8006
0.8419
0.0413
0.765
0.8063
0.7218
89.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IL
0.7751
0.797
0.0219
0.735
0.7569
0.7446
98.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IN
0.7843
0.7355
-0.0487
0.784
0.7353
0.8076
109.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KS
0.7565
0.701
-0.0554
0.725
0.6696
0.7562
112.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KY
0.6147
0.6116
-0.0031
0.62
0.6169
0.6547
106.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
LA
0.7282
0.7327
0.0045
0.735
0.7395
0.6515
88
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MA
0.7167
0.6391
-0.0776
0.81
0.7324
0.6671
91
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MD
0.7747
0.804
0.0293
0.69
0.7193
0.7062
98.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ME
0.6691
0.6878
0.0187
0.67
0.6887
0.6622
96.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MI
0.8128
0.8064
-0.0064
0.813
0.8066
0.7614
94.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MN
0.7789
0.7228
-0.0561
0.75
0.6939
0.6879
99.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MO
0.7173
0.7513
0.034
0.73
0.764
0.7651
100.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MS
0.7863
0.7719
-0.0144
0.74
0.7256
0.8221
113.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MT
0.6304
0.6166
-0.0139
0.6
0.5861
0.551
94
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NC
0.7112
0.7072
-0.004
0.71
0.706
0.7032
99.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ND
0.7747
0.7602
-0.0145
0.775
0.7605
0.7564
99.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NE
0.7872
0.7648
-0.0224
0.78
0.7576
0.7957
105
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NH
0.8159
0.8039
-0.012
0.67
0.658
0.7857
119.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NJ
0.6173
0.5951
-0.0223
0.611
0.5887
0.5674
96.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NM
0.6364
0.5981
-0.0383
0.66
0.6217
0.5778
92.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NV
0.6503
0.5644
-0.086
0.65
0.564
0.6017
106.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NY
0.6915
0.5872
-0.1043
0.73
0.6257
0.5282
84.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OH
0.7447
0.7004
-0.0443
0.72
0.6757
0.7165
106
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OK
0.7243
0.7817
0.0573
0.7
0.7573
0.7322
96.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OR
0.6345
0.6636
0.0291
0.635
0.6641
0.6268
94.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PA
0.6933
0.6882
-0.0051
0.66
0.6549
0.6378
97.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PR
0.7252
0.6495
-0.0757
0.42
0.3443
0.5361
155.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
RI
0.7181
0.7173
-0.0008
0.68
0.6792
0.692
101.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SC
0.7729
0.7841
0.0112
0.771
0.7822
0.7569
96.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SD
0.7911
0.7134
-0.0777
0.74
0.6623
0.6676
100.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TN
0.8102
0.7717
-0.0384
0.76
0.7216
0.7768
107.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TX
0.715
0.7232
0.0082
0.7
0.7082
0.672
94.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
UT
0.717
0.6845
-0.0325
0.717
0.6845
0.7694
112.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VA
0.76
0.7513
-0.0087
0.7
0.6913
0.7453
107.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VT
0.7169
0.6166
-0.1003
0.71
0.6097
0.6127
100.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WA
0.6364
0.6211
-0.0153
0.607
0.5917
0.5611
94.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WI
0.7885
0.7757
-0.0128
0.75
0.7372
0.7657
103.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WV
0.5972
0.6216
0.0244
0.633
0.6574
0.6093
92.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WY
0.666
0.6857
0.0197
0.651
0.6707
0.6871
102.4
Performance Success
1–52 of 104 rows
Note: PY2018 Annual data were used to populate the pre-PY values for the model variables that generated the estimate0 for all states except for Puerto Rico, for which PY2019 Annual data were used.

This table shows the individual indicator performance data for the Wagner-Peyser program indicators.

Model Predictions
Peformance Levels
Performance Results
Indicator
State
Estimate0
Estimate1
Adjustment Factor
Negotiated Level
Adjusted Level
Actual Level
Score
Result
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AK
0.573
0.6813
0.1082
0.58
0.6882
0.5947
86.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AL
0.7241
0.7952
0.0712
0.726
0.7972
0.6586
82.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AR
0.7115
0.727
0.0155
0.734
0.7495
0.6771
90.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
AZ
0.6782
0.706
0.0278
0.675
0.7028
0.5967
84.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CA
0.6213
0.6349
0.0136
0.614
0.6276
0.5281
84.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CO
0.6491
0.6056
-0.0435
0.57
0.5265
0.584
110.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
CT
0.6884
0.6935
0.0051
0.65
0.6551
0.582
88.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DC
0.5833
0.6254
0.0421
0.56
0.6021
0.5307
88.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
DE
0.6727
0.7096
0.0369
0.6
0.6369
0.6342
99.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
FL
0.6679
0.7155
0.0477
0.65
0.6977
0.6232
89.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
GA
0.6998
0.7229
0.0231
0.67
0.6931
0.6282
90.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
HI
0.5186
0.4428
-0.0758
0.54
0.4642
0.4967
107
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IA
0.7369
0.7213
-0.0155
0.72
0.7045
0.6193
87.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ID
0.7244
0.7176
-0.0068
0.701
0.6942
0.6437
92.7
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IL
0.6997
0.7464
0.0466
0.68
0.7266
0.5585
76.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
IN
0.767
0.8361
0.0691
0.767
0.8361
0.8043
96.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KS
0.7072
0.7344
0.0272
0.706
0.7332
0.6545
89.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
KY
0.5089
0.5206
0.0117
0.55
0.5617
0.6019
107.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
LA
0.6037
0.6249
0.0212
0.6
0.6212
0.5111
82.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MA
0.6528
0.7131
0.0603
0.65
0.7103
0.5673
79.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MD
0.6639
0.6722
0.0083
0.59
0.5983
0.5998
100.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ME
0.6637
0.686
0.0223
0.67
0.6923
0.6096
88
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MI
0.7426
0.7698
0.0272
0.73
0.7572
0.6638
87.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MN
0.6959
0.6695
-0.0264
0.66
0.6336
0.5918
93.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MO
0.718
0.7387
0.0207
0.69
0.7107
0.6465
90.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MS
0.696
0.7299
0.0339
0.65
0.6839
0.7314
106.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
MT
0.6678
0.7778
0.11
0.67
0.78
0.6286
80.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NC
0.728
0.7785
0.0505
0.713
0.7635
0.6591
86.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
ND
0.6882
0.7143
0.0261
0.688
0.7141
0.6371
89.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NE
0.7382
0.7364
-0.0019
0.73
0.7281
0.7077
97.1
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NH
0.6567
0.6996
0.0429
0.66
0.7029
0.6173
87.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NJ
0.528
0.6155
0.0875
0.528
0.6155
0.4423
71.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NM
0.6346
0.6904
0.0557
0.64
0.6957
0.5888
84.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NV
0.7359
0.7838
0.0479
0.733
0.7809
0.6333
81
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
NY
0.6771
0.7097
0.0326
0.68
0.7126
0.5595
78.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OH
0.7252
0.7008
-0.0244
0.7
0.6756
0.6726
99.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OK
0.6328
0.625
-0.0077
0.635
0.6273
0.5533
88.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
OR
0.6919
0.72
0.0281
0.682
0.7101
0.6131
86.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PA
0.6899
0.6934
0.0036
0.64
0.6436
0.5853
90.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
PR
0.6224
0.649
0.0265
0.595
0.6215
0.3931
63.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
RI
0.7047
0.6827
-0.022
0.73
0.708
0.581
82
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SC
0.704
0.7197
0.0157
0.68
0.6957
0.6304
90.6
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
SD
0.7044
0.7303
0.026
0.7
0.726
0.6314
86.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TN
0.7394
0.7542
0.0148
0.69
0.7048
0.629
89.2
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
TX
0.6871
0.7193
0.0322
0.68
0.7122
0.5942
83.4
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
UT
0.7427
0.8275
0.0848
0.743
0.8278
0.6733
81.3
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VA
0.7616
0.7266
-0.0351
0.75
0.7149
0.6685
93.5
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
VT
0.6369
0.6645
0.0276
0.626
0.6536
0.595
91
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WA
0.6939
0.7322
0.0383
0.685
0.7233
0.6071
83.9
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WI
0.7468
0.7966
0.0498
0.71
0.7598
0.669
88
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WV
0.6097
0.6227
0.013
0.61
0.623
0.5533
88.8
Performance Success
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
WY
0.6515
0.6681
0.0166
0.645
0.6616
0.6062
91.6
Performance Success
1–52 of 104 rows
Note: PY2018 Annual data were used to populate the pre-PY values for the model variables that generated the estimate0 for all states except for Puerto Rico, for which PY2019 Annual data were used.

The analysis below gives an overview of how well the models performed in adjusting and assessing performance in PY 2020. This section includes some aspects of the overall performance of the models and highlights the model variables which had a significant impact.

Overall Model Performance

The figures below provide some information on the how well the models performed using PY 2020 data. Overall, there is some variance in the performance of the different models which was primarily driven by issues discussed in the About section of this report. Click on the tabs below to see the figures for each of the program indicator models.

The distribution plots show how the adjustment process (using the statistical adjustment model) affected the performance scores for states. The blue shows the distribution of the performance scores for states in the hypothetical scenario of not using the statistical adjustment model to adjust negotiated levels. In this scenario, actual performance is compared to the original negotiated level. The green shows the distribution of performance scores for states when comparing a state’s actual performance to the adjusted level of performance. Overall, the scores using the model adjustments are more in line with performance expectations. In most cases, there are less high and low outlier scores. In addition, the higher peak for the performance scores (i.e., the green) also indicates less variance with a larger concentration of scores around 100%.

Below the distribution plots are scatter plots that show how the model predictions using the actual PY 2020 data (i.e., Estimate1) compare to the actual performance results reported for each program indicator. These plots highlight that there is some variance in the performance of different program indicator models. Overall, the better performing models have smaller residuals (i.e., points that are closer to the line which would indicate that the prediction matches the actual performance) and those residuals are evenly distributed (i.e., the points are evenly spread around the line).

Plots of the Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit indicator models for each program.

Plots of the Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit indicator models for each program.

Model Variables with Significant Impact in PY 2020

There were some model variables that had a larger impact in determining the adjustment factor and resulting performance score for each program indicator model. The reason that a variable has a large impact can vary, but includes factors such as: the relative importance that element has on a particular performance outcome and the variance in state reporting the data on particular variables. The bar plots below show the variables with the largest average adjustment for each model.

Plots of the variables in the Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit indicator models for each program.

Plots of the variables in the Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit indicator models for each program.