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The issue brief provides a step-by-step guide to using the Worker Paid Leave Usage Simulation (Worker PLUS) Model to perform an example policy simulation of the recently proposed parental leave program for federal workers. The model uses as its intakes the 2018 U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) Family and Medical Leave Act Employee Survey and the sample of civilian employees at the federal government from the 2014–2018 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample and applies program parameters that best reflect the proposed leave program. The model predicts an annual program outlay of $866 million if assuming full take-up. This result is similar to the average annual cost projection of $833 million over fiscal years 2021–2024 estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.

Key Takeaways

• Researchers performed a policy simulation of a recently signed law under which a new parental leave program would be implemented among federal civilian workers. With the model parameters configured to best reflect the known features of the program, adopting conservative settings for unknown features, and adjusting for leave length caps and eligible population base estimate, the model is shown to produce outlay estimates that are comparable to the Congressional Budget Office’s program cost projection.

Citation

IMPAQ International. (2021). Worker Paid Leave Usage Simulation (Worker PLUS) Model: A Guide to Performing a Policy of a Parental Leave Program for Federal Civilian Employees. Chief Evaluation Office, U.S. Department of Labor.

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The Department of Labor’s (DOL) Chief Evaluation Office (CEO) sponsors independent evaluations and research, primarily conducted by external, third-party contractors in accordance with the Department of Labor Evaluation Policy and CEO’s research development process.