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In the issue brief, researchers provide a benchmarking study of the Worker Paid Leave Usage Simulation (Worker PLUS) Model simulation results. The results from the Worker PLUS model are compared to those from an existing paid leave simulation model developed by Albelda and Clayton-Matthews (2017, the ACM model) and actual program administrative data. Simulation results compared include program benefit outlays and program participation for three state paid leave programs in California, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. The goal of this study is to provide users of both models a summary of model validity based on actual program data. The study shows that, although both models can predict program outlays fairly accurately, the Worker PLUS model improves upon the ACM model by better predicting program participant counts and by providing alternative estimates through multiple simulation methods.

Key Takeaways

• The benchmarking study shows that the model can predict program outlays and eligible worker counts in similar accuracy as the existing ACM model for the three state-run worker paid leave programs in California, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. The Worker PLUS model predicts program participant counts more accurately than the existing ACM model by directly calibrating take-up rates toward actual participant counts reported by states.

Citation

IMPAQ International. (2021). Worker Paid Leave Usage Simulation (Worker PLUS) Model: A Benchmarking Study of the Worker PLUS Model Results. Chief Evaluation Office, U.S. Department of Labor.

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The Department of Labor’s (DOL) Chief Evaluation Office (CEO) sponsors independent evaluations and research, primarily conducted by external, third-party contractors in accordance with the Department of Labor Evaluation Policy and CEO’s research development process.