About the Paper

Download Paper

The paper studies the short- and long-run effects of each U.S. recession since 1973 on local economic activity. Researchers analyze how economic activity evolves across local areas that are differentially affected by national recessions. For each recession, researchers find that employment, population, employment-to-population ratios, and earnings per capita experience persistently declines for at least a decade after recession’s end. While transfers also remain elevated for a decade or more, they are insufficient to fully offset earnings losses, leading to long-term declines in per-capita income as well. Changes in the composition of workers explain less than half of these persistent effects.

Citation

Hershbein, B., Stuart, B. A. (2019). Recessions and Local Labor Markets. Chief Evaluation Office, U.S. Department of Labor.

Download Paper

This study was part of the Department of Labor Scholars Program, and was produced outside of CEO’s standard research development process.