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The report provides the findings of the implementation of a quasi-experimental design to understand how changing labor market conditions associated with the pandemic affect opioid use.

Research Questions

• How do unexpected changes in local labor market conditions affect opioid use?

Key Takeaways

• The COVID-19 pandemic was a substantial, unexpected shock to employment, but counties varied widely in their vulnerability to job loss due to the pandemic.
• Worsening labor market conditions led to an increase in opioid transactions relative to what they would have been in the absence of this unexpected shock of the pandemic, though the magnitude of this impact varied by geographic region.
• This finding has implications for early stages of future epidemics and pandemics that lead to widespread closures of businesses, schools, and government entities. Locations more affected by a contraction in employment might experience a sharp increase in opioid transactions. The increase in opioid transactions could, in turn, increase health emergencies related to opioid misuse and put stress on emergency medical providers.
• The study measured the employment-related effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on legal opioid transactions, which are likely to be strongly correlated with both medical and nonmedical opioid use as well as overdoses. However, the report findings might be underestimating the effect on overall opioid use including illicit use, which is responsible for a substantial and growing share of opioid deaths in recent years.

Citation

Hill, A., Musse, I., Ben-Shalom, Y., Shaw, W. (2021) Mathematica. The Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on Opioid Transactions: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic. Chief Evaluation Office, U.S. Department of Labor.

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The Department of Labor’s (DOL) Chief Evaluation Office (CEO) sponsors independent evaluations and research, primarily conducted by external, third-party contractors in accordance with the Department of Labor Evaluation Policy and CEO’s research development process.