Understanding Equity in Paid Leave through Microsimulation Analysis

About the Study

In 2023, the Women's Bureau funded the Urban Institute to conduct the project Understanding Equity in Paid Leave through Microsimulation Analysis. Through a literature review and data analysis, this project aims to explore the distributional outcomes and impact of certain state and federal policies on paid leave access and usage, including research identifying who is least likely to have gained access to paid leave through various state and federal policy interventions.

This project utilized the Worker Paid Leave Usage Simulation (Worker PLUS) model, which employs public microdata from the Department of Labor's Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) Employee Survey to train simulation models for individual-level needs and behaviors. The Urban Institute's Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Income Security (ATTIS) microsimulation model provided insights on how a public paid family and medical leave benefit might impact employment and incomes as well as how the policy would interact with other income support programs such as TANF, EITC and SNAP.

A series of reports and briefs were prepared to help researchers, policy analysts and the public understand how paid family and medical leave and means-tested programs interact at the national and state levels. The reports show that:

• If the U.S. were to implement a national paid family and medical leave, 97% of workers would be eligible for benefits under the program.
• A national paid family and medical leave program would reduce poverty across all communities and would reduce the poverty gap among workers, especially Black and Hispanic workers.
• There are several models for a national paid family and medical leave program, and the structure of the policy has significant implications for workers. Factors such as broad worker coverage so a greater number of workers can take leave; progressive wage replacement to ensure that those with the greatest need receive a higher percentage of their income; and other features would increase equity and access to and use of paid leave for workers.

Learn more about the findings below:

• Understanding Equity in Paid Leave through Microsimulation: National Report (PDF)
  This report focuses on the impact of adopting a national paid family and medical leave (PFML) program modeled on existing state programs, using the Worker PLUS model and the ATTIS model to estimate the impact of enacting the national PFML program in 2018, the most recent year for which we have data for both models.
• Impact of Paid Family and Medical Leave in States
  These briefs present estimates of benefits, costs, interactions with other means-tested programs, and impact on poverty for the proposed or existing paid family and medical leave programs in the following states:
  • Impact of Paid Family and Medical Leave in Pennsylvania: An Analysis of the Pennsylvania Family and Medical Leave Insurance Act (PDF)
  • Impact of Paid Family and Medical Leave in Michigan: An Analysis of the Michigan Family Leave Optimal Coverage Act (PDF)
  • Impact of Paid Family and Medical Leave in Washington: An Analysis of the Washington Paid Family and Medical Leave Program (PDF)
  • Impact of Paid Family and Medical Leave in Maryland: An Analysis of the Maryland Family and Medical Leave Insurance Act (PDF)
• Paid Family and Medical Leave, Means-Tested Benefits, and Taxes: How State Paid Leave Benefits Affect Workers' Taxes, Eligibility, and Benefits (PDF)
  This brief examines the treatment of PFML for purposes of state and federal taxation, as well as determining income and eligibility in means-tested programs.
• Understanding Equity in Paid Family and Medical Leave Programs: Literature Review and Landscape Analysis (PDF)
  This report provides a review of data and literature on current patterns in access, need and take-up of paid family and medical leave benefits, including disparities by gender, race and ethnicity, income, marital status, occupation and employment status.